Real Talk
THIS WEEK Everyone's asking: is the housing crash coming back? This question lit up online this week. So let's talk about it plainly.
Yes, rates are higher. And higher rates slow a housing market down.
A slowdown only turns into a crash when people are forced to sell. When they owe more than the home is worth and can't get out cleanly.
So here's the number that matters. In 2009, about 26% of mortgaged homes were underwater. Today it's just 1.9% — roughly 1.09 million homes out of tens of millions.
Big difference. People with equity don't hand over the keys.
The average mortgaged homeowner is sitting on about $310,000 in equity right now, according to Cotality. When a hard month comes, people with a cushion like that can sell — or just wait. They don't get forced out.
So the fear making the rounds this week doesn't match the math. Whether you're hoping to buy your first place in Show Low or you've owned in Snowflake for years, that's the honest read. Know someone up at night worried about a crash? Send this their way.
🤯 INTERESTING FACT Here's the part that surprises people.
Right now, sellers are the ones handing out the deals.
In August, sellers gave buyers a concession in 44.7% of U.S. home sales — nearly half.
According to Redfin, that's up from 42.6% a year earlier and the highest August share since they started tracking in 2020. A concession is money toward repairs, closing costs, or buying down your rate.
And here in Arizona it's even bigger. Redfin found Phoenix sellers gave concessions in 67.4% of August sales — about two out of three. Buyers have more room to ask than they've had in years. That's not a crash. That's leverage.
Inventory is up 17.4% from last year and homes are taking seven days longer to sell. Here is what that means if you are buying or selling in the White Mountains right now.
💡 Did You Know I Can Do This? Here's one a lot of folks miss. There's a program some lenders offer that rolls the cost of repairs and upgrades right into your home loan. New kitchen, new roof, a full remodel — one loan, one payment, instead of a credit card and a prayer.
That matters a lot in Pinetop-Lakeside and Heber-Overgaard, where plenty of homes have great bones and dated everything. You don't have to find something already perfect — and if you already own, you can fund the fix-up the same way.
Wondering if a renovation loan fits your place? Reply and ask, or shoot me a text — I'll walk you through it. No pressure.
THE REAL MOVE Stop waiting for a crash. Start negotiating. Fear tells you to sit and wait for prices to fall apart.
But the seller you're facing today isn't the one who listed back in June. They've watched showings dry up. They've had the awkward price-cut talk with their agent.
That's exactly when a buyer has room to ask.
Money toward closing costs. A rate buydown. Repairs done before you move in. In this market, those asks land. If you're eyeing a place in Show Low or Taylor, get your numbers lined up so you can move when the right one shows.
And if you already own? It's worth a five-minute check to see if your current setup still fits you.
That's where I come in. I'm a broker, not a bank. I shop hundreds of lenders to find the one that fits YOU — not the one that fits them. Know someone in Snowflake who keeps saying they'll wait for the crash? Send this their way.
Kristi Olson, MBA — mortgage broker (NMLS #1459928) and licensed Arizona Realtor, serving the White Mountains. Equal Housing Opportunity. Nothing here is a commitment to lend. Get in touch →